Tokenized asset markets: 2026 growth rates & year-end projections

Stablecoins, tokenized funds, tokenized commodities, and tokenized stocks now represent roughly $340B in combined onchain market cap. Each sector sits at a different stage of maturity, with different issuers, growth drivers, and dependencies on external catalysts. Together, they form the clearest picture available of how traditional financial assets are migrating onto blockchain rails.

This week, we look at each sector through the same lens: where it stands today, who is driving it, and what has to be true for it to grow, stall, or contract by end of year. We apply uniform forecast projections of -10% (bear), +15% (neutral), and +40% (bull) across all four sectors.

1) Stablecoins

• Stablecoins have grown from $227.4B to $300.9B over the past year, making them the largest and most mature sector of tokenized assets. Growth was strongest through late 2024 and early 2025, with the pace moderating over the past six months.

• USDT ($183.8B, 61.0% share) and USDC ($77.6B, 26.0%) account for 87.0% of total supply. USDC grew +4.2% YTD while USDT contracted slightly (-1.5%). The larger relative growth is further down: Sky's USDS expanded 28.2% YTD to $12.1B, World Liberty Financial's USD1 grew 30.8% to $4.3B, and PayPal's PYUSD rose 10% to $3.9B. By chain, Ethereum (60.0%), Tron (28.0%), and Solana ($14.1B, 5.0%) hold the top three positions.

• The three scenarios yield $271.3B (bear), $346.6B (neutral), $422.0B (bull). For the bear case, you would need to believe a de-peg event or a major regulatory setback is likely. The neutral case assumes continued organic growth plus early effects from the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, with final regulations due by July 2026. The bull case assumes a step-change in adoption before year-end, whether through new issuance under the GENIUS Act, payments traction, or broader capital inflows. Treasury Secretary Bessent has projected tenfold growth by end of decade, though that timeline extends well beyond 2026.

2) Tokenized funds

• Tokenized funds have more than doubled over the past year to $33.5B, with a consistent upward trajectory. The sector covers tokenized treasuries, credit funds, and yield strategies. Growth accelerated in the second half of 2025.

• The top assets span both DeFi-native and institutional products. Sky's sUSDS leads at $6.2B (+62.3% YTD), followed by Ethena's sUSDe ($3.5B), Circle's USYC ($2.7B, +75.7% YTD), BlackRock's BUIDL ($2.4B, +39.0% YTD), and Maple's syrupUSDC ($1.8B, +34.3% YTD). Ethereum holds 70.0%, with BNB Chain (+57.8% YTD) and Solana (+54.6% YTD) growing fastest among alternative chains.

• The three scenarios yield $30.2B (bear), $38.6B (neutral), $47.0B (bull). For the bear case, you would need to believe Treasury yields become unattractive or a high-profile loss shakes investor confidence. The neutral case assumes existing issuers continue scaling at their current pace. The bull case assumes early institutional deployments begin scaling meaningfully: JP Morgan ($4.0T AUM) and Fidelity ($5.9T AUM) have both launched tokenized money market funds on Ethereum over the past year. Even a fraction of a percent of their combined assets moving onchain would materially shift the sector's total.

3) Tokenized commodities

• Tokenized commodities have more than quadrupled over the past year to $5.4B, with the sharpest acceleration in late 2025. Gold is the commodity with the strongest product-market fit onchain so far, and the sector's trajectory reflects whether the broader appetite for gold as a macro hedge is extending into tokenized formats.

• Tether's XAUT ($2.6B, +48.1% YTD) and Paxos' PAXG ($2.4B, +50.0% YTD) account for 95.0% of the market, both backed 1:1 by physical gold. The remaining 5% includes Pleasing Gold's PGOLD ($91.7M), Matrixdock's XAUM ($70.8M, +12.0% YTD), and Ondo's IAUon ($14.5M, +40.2% YTD). Ethereum holds 96.0% of tokenized commodity value. Multi-chain expansion is nascent: Solana (+119.2% YTD) is the fastest-growing alternative but still holds below $100M.

• The three scenarios yield $4.8B (bear), $6.1B (neutral), $7.5B (bull). For the bear case, you would need to believe gold corrects meaningfully from current levels. The neutral case assumes gold prices stabilize near current levels and tokenized variants continue capturing a steady share of inflows. The bull case could be driven by a continued gold rally, by more gold moving onchain as tokenized formats gain traction, or both. Early-stage products like Ondo's IAUon ($14.5M, +40.2% YTD) and xStocks' GLDx ($8.8M, +57.7% YTD) suggest adoption is broadening. Whether the sector diversifies beyond gold is likely a question for 2027 and beyond.

4) Tokenized stocks

• Tokenized stocks have grown from near zero to $980.1M in 12 months, with no single month of decline. It is the smallest of the four sectors but by far the fastest-growing.

• Two issuers control 95.0% of the market: Ondo at $670.7M (68.4%, +89.5% YTD) and xStocks at $265.6M (27.1%, +45.5% YTD). Ondo's tokenized Circle stock CRCLon ($147.5M, +751.5% YTD) is the single largest asset, with additional tokenized equities (e.g. TSLAx, GOOGLon) and tokenized ETFs (e.g. SPYon, QQQon) also present. By chain, Ethereum (45.3%, +34.4% YTD), Solana (25.9%, +40.8% YTD), and BNB Chain (25.1%, +546.2% YTD) split the market three ways.

• The three scenarios yield $869.8M (bear), $1.1B (neutral), $1.4B (bull). For the bear case, you would need to believe a regulatory reversal or equity selloff breaks the sector's uninterrupted growth. The neutral case assumes existing issuers continue scaling. The bull case is consistent with current momentum (68.0% YTD) and could accelerate if Robinhood Chain (backed by a platform with $314.2B in assets) or Circle's Arc (a stablecoin-native L1, targeting mainnet in 2026) ship this year. The gap between what has been tokenized and what could be remains vast: CRCLon, the sector's largest asset at $147.5M, is less than 1% of Circle's $21.8B market cap.

Explore the full dataset here.

Since Token Terminal's standardized metrics went live on Binance several months ago, the scope of our work has expanded from a data integration to in-depth quarterly (and monthly) reporting.

Token Terminal has published 17 Q4 2025 reports and 3 monthly reports to date. Each report covers key financial and operational metrics alongside qualitative commentary from the respective core team.

Featured report: Aave March 2026

As part of its Data Partnership with Aave, Token Terminal publishes monthly reports on Aave's onchain fundamentals. Key metrics for March 2026:

• Total value locked: $42.34b (-5.79% MoM, +45.45% YoY)

• Active loans: $16.55b (-6.96% MoM, +47.32% YoY)

• Fees: $43.94m (-40.57% MoM, +9.01% YoY)

• Revenue: $6.64m (-50.45% MoM, +7.79% YoY)

• Monthly active users: 114.4k (-26.03% MoM, +2.10% YoY)

• Market share: 59.79% (-2.95 pp MoM, +0.63 pp YoY)

March was defined by the launch of Aave V4 on Ethereum. Metrics moderated month-over-month after February's market correction but remain well above year-ago levels.

Reports for Q1 2026 are currently in production. If you're evaluating how to formalize your project's data and reporting strategy, get in touch.

Platform updates:

• Added fees, revenue, and EDGE governance token market data for edgeX. edgeX is a decentralized perpetual futures and spot exchange built on Ethereum, leveraging zero-knowledge rollups.

• Listed 5 projects with basic metrics: HLiquity, Hashport, Sirio Finance, DaVinciGraph, and Pineapple Financial.

• Added 30+ assets to the Tokenized assets page, including a batch of xStocks tokenized stocks, Matrixdock Silver (XAGm), and Pineapple Financial's PAPL0.

• Revamped the Matrixdock project page: split wSTBT (non-rebasing) into its own asset from STBT (rebasing), Matrixdock's tokenized U.S. T-bill products. Added Solana support for XAUM, Matrixdock's tokenized gold product.

Interested in getting listed? Read more here.

How we built an in-house price feed for 300,000+ tokens

Every dollar-denominated metric Token Terminal serves depends on a reliable token price. Across 100+ blockchains and 1,200+ protocols, manually curating which tokens to price doesn't scale, but including every token without filtering is equally dangerous: illiquid tokens are cheap to manipulate, and a single bad price can distort the metrics for a protocol or an entire ecosystem.

Our in-house price feed covers over 300,000 tokens. It establishes prices in layers, where each layer depends only on the one above it:

• Tier 1: Stablecoins. Over 20 stablecoins form the ground truth, cross-referenced against onchain oracle feeds to confirm the peg holds.

• Tier 2: Spot tokens. Starting from wrapped native tokens, each pass prices any token that trades against an already-priced token in a DEX pool with sufficient liquidity. A few iterations take coverage from around 50 wrapped tokens to over 300,000.

• Tier 3: Derivative and LP tokens. These don't trade directly in DEX pools. They derive their value from other tokens through protocol-specific logic, which is why the hierarchy matters.

Three filtering layers keep bad data out: manually curated denylists, anomaly detection for skewed pools and price spikes, and trading filters for spam tokens and outlier swaps. Every number we publish is defensible down to the pool level.

If your team needs access to the same price feed we use internally, reach out at [email protected].