Ripple's RLUSD surpasses $1B market cap

Background

Ripple is often known as the original development company behind XRP and the XRP Ledger (XRPL). However, over the past two years, Ripple has expanded into four new business lines: payments, custody, prime brokerage, and stablecoins (RLUSD).

RLUSD is deployed on both XRPL and Ethereum, with roughly 85% of the supply on Ethereum. On Ethereum alone, RLUSD surpassed $1B in market cap 12 months after its launch. If RLUSD’s market cap were to grow 10x from here, Ripple could become the third-largest stablecoin issuer after Tether and Circle.

Let's explore what the onchain data tells us about RLUSD's recent growth.

1) RLUSD market cap

• RLUSD on Ethereum surpassed $1B in market cap within 12 months of its launch. The chart shows growth through discrete step-ups rather than a smooth curve, with each step representing a distinct issuance event. Later steps are larger than earlier ones, and the supply holds steady after each expansion.

• The step pattern reflects batch issuance rather than continuous minting. Stablecoin issuers typically mint in batches when onboarding new counterparties or activating distribution channels. The absence of drawdowns after large steps indicates redemptions have not meaningfully offset new issuance.

• Net demand is absorbing new supply and allowing it to remain in circulation. For a stablecoin less than a year old, sustained supply retention signals that RLUSD is finding sticky use cases.

2) RLUSD holders

• RLUSD holder count on Ethereum surpassed 6K, up from 750 at the start of the year. The chart shows a smooth, monotonic increase with visible acceleration in H2. Unlike the step pattern in supply, holder growth follows a continuous upward curve.

• Holder growth keeping pace with supply growth suggests distribution rather than concentration. When new supply remains parked in a small set of addresses, holder counts stay flat even as market cap rises. Here, holders keep rising through major supply increases, indicating newly issued RLUSD is being dispersed outward.

• The holder trend supports the view that adoption is widening alongside supply growth. A stablecoin with broad holder distribution is more likely to be building real usage than one where supply concentrates in a few wallets.

3) Weekly RLUSD transfer volume

• Weekly RLUSD transfer volume on Ethereum now averages around $1B, up from $66M at the start of the year. The chart shows an upward trend through H1, then a clear shift to a higher baseline in H2. Recent weeks cluster around an elevated floor rather than spiking and reverting.

• A rising baseline typically indicates a shift from distribution-phase activity to more regular, recurring usage. Early-stage stablecoin transfers often reflect initial distribution, with issuers moving supply to exchanges or counterparties. The clustering around an elevated floor suggests activity that persists beyond isolated events.

• The chart points to increasing utilization, not only increasing issuance. This pattern is consistent with RLUSD being used in ongoing flows rather than sitting idle after minting.

4) Weekly RLUSD transfer count

• Weekly RLUSD transfer count on Ethereum now averages 7K, up from 240 at the start of the year. The chart mirrors the volume pattern: a steady increase through H1, then re-basing higher in H2.

• Transfer count rising alongside volume suggests growing usage frequency rather than by a small number of large transfers. If volume increased while transfer count stayed flat, it would indicate a few whales moving large sums. Instead, both metrics rise in parallel, pointing to broader participation.

• The parallel rise in count and volume indicates RLUSD activity is expanding along both the size and frequency dimensions. Transaction frequency typically does not remain elevated without routine drivers, suggesting new repeat behaviors or operational flows have become active.

Access the charts here.

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